Do you remember when it took real skill to be a plumber? To attach a
faucet to a pipe, you had to be able to melt solder and shape it with
tools while using a kerosene-fueled blowtorch. Get it wrong and you
melted the lead pipe. Putting in a faucet was half a day's work. When
it froze, pipes split and had to be cut out and repaired, also at vast
expense. The training to do all the jobs was expensive and took years.
Now go round the hardware store. In ours there are several kinds of push
fit and screw fit plumbing. The pipe is plastic, you cut it with a
simple little tool. I recently had to replace the water softener and
the new one had different plumbing. It took me nearly half an hour to
put in four bends and a few joints.
That's the race for the bottom. Basic plumbing skills now take a day to acquire and, by
following the instructions, you can do a safe job. But plumbers are
still employed. I'm not about to service my boiler, or install a bath.
I have more sense than to try to put in an oil tank and all the safety
equipment, following all the codes.
It's like that with software. It is not a race for the bottom, it is called progress. An SMTP server
is now a basic piece of kit. The learning curve for spreadsheet design
is, basically, over. Unlike the so-called creative arts, engineering
does not recognise the idea that somebody should be rewarded forever
for a one-off contribution. In a knowledge society, new knowledge has
value but old knowledge is free.
Eventually, kicking and screaming, I expect we will get Open Source Law, and so-called lawyers
will no longer be able to charge excessively for basic legal advice in
simple cases. But specialist lawyers and the Supreme Court will still
be needed, because there will still be hard cases. The same should
really apply to all professions. And if you want a guaranteed source of
income, make something essential that wears out. Grow food, make
clothes or shoes.
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